World may suffer dangerous climate change if new international agreement not in place by 2017 - IEA & UNEP
Fri 18 November 2011
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The International Energy Agency says that the world may not be able to limit global temperature rise to safe levels if new international climate action is not taken by 2017, as so many fossil fuel power plants and factories are being built. Meanwhile, in a separate report the UNEP says that greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 could rise to between 6 billion and 11 billion tons above what is needed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.
The IEA says that if the world is to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius -- thought to be the minimum safety level before devastating effects of climate change set in -- emission volumes must not have more than 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide.
With emissions already at 390 ppm of CO2, the Agency says, time is running out for action.
Around 80 percent of total energy-related carbon emissions permissible by 2035 to limit warming are already accounted for by existing power plants, buildings and factories, the IEA said in its World Energy Outlook.
Fatih Birol, IEA's chief economist (quoted by Planet Ark) said: "As each year passes without clear signals to drive investment in clean energy, the 'lock-in' of high-carbon infrastructure is making it harder and more expensive to meet our energy security and climate goals."
Meanwhile a new report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) says that greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 could rise more than forecast to well above what is needed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.
The gap between countries' emissions cut pledges and what is needed to remain under what scientists say is the limit to avoid devastating effects of global warming has widened since its 2010 estimate of 5-9 billion tons as new data has emerged, the UNEP said.
Extreme weather is likely to worsen across the globe this century as the Earth's climate warms, UN scientists warned last week, but global carbon emissions rose to a record level last year.
The report says (quoted by Reuters): "To stay within the 2 degree limit, global emissions will have to peak soon (and) total greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 must be about 46 percent lower than their 1990 level, or about 53 percent lower than their 2005 level.,"
Countries agreed last year in Cancun, Mexico, that deep emissions cuts were needed to hold an increase in global average temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
In a related development, the Tyndall Centre on Climate Change has released a podcast by Professor Kevin Anderson and published on the DfID website about the latest state of climate science entitled 'Going beyond Dangerous'. The podcast warns that temperatures at the end of the century could increase by as much as 4 degrees.
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