US study says achieving 80% GHG cut from cars and vans by 2050 is possible
Thu 21 March 2013
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The US National Research Council (NRC) has released a comprehensive study of the technology potential for cutting oil consumption and GHG emissions by 80% across the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet in 2050, compared to a 2005 baseline. It is cautiously optimistic that the goal can be achieved but says that this will demand vigorous and sustained public-sector support through “policies emphasizing research and development, subsidies, energy taxes, or regulations.”
The report examines the current capability and estimated future performance and costs for each vehicle type and non-petroleum-based fuel technology as options that could significantly contribute to these goals. By analyzing scenarios that combine various fuel and vehicle pathways, the report also identifies barriers to implementation of these technologies and suggests policies to achieve the desired reductions. Several scenarios are promising, but strong, effective, and sustained but adaptive policies such as research and development (R&D), subsidies, energy taxes, or regulations will be necessary to overcome barriers such as cost and consumer choice.
The study - the product of more than two years’ work by a committee drawn from industry, government, and the academy - focused on four general technology pathways: highly efficient conventional vehicles (including conventional hybrids), biofuels, plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The analysis also takes in natural gas, various crosscutting vehicle and fuels technologies, and certain relevant external factors, such as prospects for decarbonizing the electric power sector.
Among the report’s key findings, according to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) which was involved in the preparation of the study:
• The goal of reducing oil use by 80% could be met by several combinations of technologies that achieve at least the mid-range level of estimated success. But it will demand continued improvement in vehicle efficiency beyond what is required by the 2025 CAFE standards, as well as increased production and use of biofuels, and/or the successful introduction and large-scale deployment of compressed natural gas vehicles, BEVs with greatly improved batteries, or fuel cell vehicles, with all the additional new supporting infrastructure those imply.
• Reductions in annual GHG emissions from the LDV fleet on the order of 60% to 70% are achievable by 2050, but reaching the desired 80% reduction is less certain, and will in any case be more difficult than reducing oil consumption by the same 80%. Petroleum-based fuels would have to be largely eliminated and at least two of four pathways would be required, i.e., highly efficient conventional vehicles combined with vehicles operating on biofuels, electricity, or hydrogen produced with low net GHG emissions. This scenario involves significant uncertainties concerning performance and costs, and it implies an economy- wide transition away from GHG emissions.
• Because of the need for progress across multiple if not necessarily all technology pathways, and uncertainties over costs, rates of implementation, and consumer and manufacturer responses, an adaptive, "all of the above" type of policy framework is crucial.
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