UN report shows progress on climate promises but more is needed
Fri 30 October 2015
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A new report from the United Nations says that plans to limit climate change submitted by 146 countries represent progress but are, as yet, insufficient to keep global temperatures from rising within the 'safe' 2C limit. The plans so far submitted cover around 86% of global emissions; about four times the amount covered by the Kyoto Protocol.
The UN report says that the plans are a major step forward and the 2C goal is still "within reach". However, total world carbon emissions will continue to grow, although more slowly than over the past two decades.
The UN believes that these national climate plans, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) will form the cornerstone of a binding, global treaty on climate change that will be agreed at a conference in Paris in December.
Their assessment is more upbeat about the plans than previous assessments, despite acknowledging that taken together they point to rises in global temperatures of 2.7C above the pre-industrial level. Commentators say the 2.7C figure is a substantial improvement on 3.1C, which was the estimate when the plans were assessed last December.
The UN climate chief, Christiana Figueres (reported by the BBC), said the plans were an excellent first step: "The INDCs have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7C by 2100, by no means enough but a lot lower than the estimated four, five, or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the INDCs."
In December 2013, all Parties to the UNFCCC were invited to communicate their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) well in advance of the Paris Conference (COP 21).
A total of 147 Parties* (75% of all Parties to the UNFCCC) responded to this invitation by 1 October 2015. Together,
they represent approximately 86% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2010.
Under the plans submitted, global average per capita emissions are expected to decline by 8 and 4 per cent by 2025 and by 9 and 5 per cent by 2030 compared with the levels in 1990 and 2010, respectively.
The parties have submitted their INDCs with the understanding that they would be anchored in a broader new climate agreement that would support sustainable actions nationally and globally.
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