Transformation to electrified road transport will require stakeholder collaboration of ‘massive complexity’ – ICCT report
Mon 21 March 2011
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The introduction of electric vehicles on a large scale will demand collaboration between government, industry, other stakeholders, and the public. A new report by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) says: “to call the task complex is a massive understatement”. Meanwhile, the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA) has also published a report focusing on EV uptake and recommends seven actions to bring about a change in consumer perceptions of EVs.
To help identify the way ahead, in 2010 the ICCT undertook a study of vehicle electrification policies worldwide.
The study focused primarily on the California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) program but it placed that programme in a global context, in order that the analysis and findings should be of use elsewhere.
The report looked at five related topics:
• The current status of vehicle and infrastructure technologies
• Appropriate metrics for measuring progress toward commercialization
• Costs of transitioning to a self-sustaining market
• Complementary policies to support electric vehicle deployment
• The state of practice in electric vehicle policy worldwide
Three of five planned reports have now been released, covering technology status, metrics, and complementary policies. The remaining analyses are planned for completion in 2011.
In terms of technology, the study’s key findings highlight declining costs. According to the study, most analysts project that the cost per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for BEV batteries will fall from $650-$1000 today to $400-$700 in 2015 and $300-$500 in 2020, with some projections for 2020 going as low as $150 per kWh.
But despite these trends and the rapid advancements in ZEV technology, the potential for commercialization remains unclear. The unique contribution of the California ZEV mandate is its ability to sustain technology neutral research and development during periods of uncertainty and market challenge.
The study also identifies emerging issues that will become increasingly important in the transition from a heavily subsidized market dominated by early adopters to a larger mass market. Different incentives that go beyond tax credits and support for infrastructure will be needed to address the concerns of second-wave buyers, it says. The challenges involved in winning a risk-averse mass market merit concentrated policy attention, according to the ICCT.
In a separate publication the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA) outlines ways of boosting electric vehicle uptake. The FIA believes it will be difficult to persuade consumers to buy EVs and it will require a broad range of policies and technological measures to do so.
The report recommends seven actions to bring about a change in consumer perceptions of EVs. The FIA is calling, for example, for standardised approaches to battery technologies and charging, something the EU is already addressing.
Other recommendations in the FIA report include more research to develop batteries' life spans and cut their costs.
The FIA says that consumers may also be put off buying second-hand electric cars if there is no standard testing procedure for their batteries.
However, the FIA warns governments against backing particular technologies. It says that plug-in hybrids and battery vehicles will be niche products for the next 15 years, so policymakers must continue to encourage more efficient internal combustion engines.
In conclusion, the report warns that countries developing vehicle taxes and traffic management policies should be technology neutral.
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