Shell report points to potential emergence of new energy system to deliver Paris Agreement goals
Fri 27 April 2018
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A new report from Shell sets out a vision for a technically possible, but challenging pathway for society to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Shell's 'Sky Scenario' says that it is technically possible for electric vehicles to reach cost parity with combustion engine cars by 2025; that by 2035 all the new passenger vehicles bought in the OECD and China could be electric, and that by 2050 this could also be true globally.
The report points to the potential for the emergence of a new energy system. It says that the Paris Agreement has sent a signal around the world: that climate change is a serious issue that governments are determined to address. By 2070, the 'Sky Scenario' suggests there is the potential for a very different energy system to emerge.
The report outlines what Shell believes to be a technologically, industrially, and economically possible route forward, consistent with limiting the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C from pre-industrial levels. It reveals the potential for an energy system to emerge that brings modern energy to all in the world, without delivering a climate legacy that society cannot readily adapt to.
The report says the energy transition could occur “more rapidly than many expect” – with 50 per cent of global car sales electrified by 2030 and 100 per cent by 2050. It suggests that targets may be met through the adoption of fleets of autonomous electric vehicles in large cities, as well as the standardisation of electric car powertrains. To compensate for the “one size fits all” approach to engine performance, it suggests letting manufacturers re-body vehicle architecture using 3D printing techniques, which could allow for complete customisation.
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