Oil demand has peaked in developed world says IEA
Fri 29 January 2010
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The International Energy Agency's Chief Economist, Faith Birol, says that oil use in the developed, industrialized countries peaked in 2006-7 and will never return to those levels because of greater fuel efficiency and the use of alternatives. Ms Birol made the statement to journalists. The forecast is significant as the IEA advises 28 countries on energy policy and its forecasts are closely watched by the markets.
"When we look at the OECD countries -- the U.S., Europe and Japan -- I think the level of demand that we have seen in 2006 and 2007, we will never see again," Fatih Birol told Reuters in a telephone interview.
"There may be some zig zags up and down but as a trend I think it will be a downward trend in terms of oil consumption."
Birol said the economic crisis had played a role in curbing OECD demand but the main reasons were more efficient cars and the increasing use of electricity and gas instead of oil in areas outside transport.
According to Reuters, flat or declining OECD demand may ease any strain on oil prices caused by ever-growing consumption in emerging economies. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) group of industrialized countries will account for 53 percent of world demand in 2010, according to the IEA.
In its latest monthly Oil Market Report, the IEA forecast that OECD demand would average 45.48 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2010, unchanged from 2009. Total world demand is forecast at 86.33 million bpd in 2010, up from 84.89 million in 2009.
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