Official figures greatly under-state UK's CO2 emissions - report
Mon 10 December 2007
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A report from economists at Oxford University concludes that Britain has an impressive record in terms of meeting its official Kyoto Protocol target for greenhouse gas emissions. However, the country's true performance is worse when the calculations include emissions from aviation, shipping, overseas trade and tourism; and worse still when emissions are calculated on a net consumption basis.
The team of economists led by Dieter Helm say that while the UK has already beaten its Kyoto target, when international transport and overseas activities are taken into account emissions have fallen by only 11.9% since 1990. Furthermore, airline passengers and firms from the UK consumed more greenhouse gases during their visits and activities abroad than overseas visitors and firms did in the UK, weakening the UK’s overall performance when these trade activities are included. The trend, according to the study, is an adverse one.
However, the study continues, even this extended scope of measurement does not represent the true picture of the UK economy’s impact on the climate. To understand the UK’s true impact, the greenhouse gas accounts should be reported on a net consumption basis. On this basis, and by adding greenhouse gases embedded in imports and subtracting those embedded in exports, the 'crude calculations' presented in the study show that UK emissions have, in fact, risen by about 19% since 1990.
(The report acknowledges, however, that the scale of the effect is highly uncertain because of the highly aggregated level of data used to make the calculation. )
The report says: "This is a dramatic reversal of fortune. It merits an immediate, more detailed and more robust assessment. It suggests that the decline in greenhouse gas emissions from the UK economy may have been to a considerable degree an illusion."
Dieter Helm, who is a government adviser as well as leader of the study (as reported in The Guardian) said: "The implications for the UK are stark: the UK has not yet, as ministers repeatedly claim, emphatically broken the link between economic growth and emissions. To reduce carbon consumption in the UK would demand much more radical policies. Excluding carbon imports and excluding aviation provides an artificial picture. We have to take responsibility for the carbon we consume."
"This puts us in a completely different starting position. We need to move on from all the self-congratulations over [meeting the target set by] Kyoto and look at the real effect of policies."
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