New report says petrol and diesel to dominate transport fuels future to 2030 but hybrids will make inroads
Tue 23 April 2013
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Conventionally powered petrol and diesel cars will remain with us until at least 2030 and short to medium-term carbon emissions reductions from the road transport sector will depend mainly on improving their performance says a new report for the RAC Foundation/UKPIA by Ricardo-AEA. The report says that the 2025 new car CO2 target should be designed to capture well-to-wheel (and, ultimately, full life-cycle) emissions.
The report, launched at a conference in London, says that electric vehicle take-up has been disappointingly slow and that the future of – pure battery vehicles, at least – will depend on breakthroughs in battery technology.
The report is more optimistic about the short to medium-term potential for plug-in hybrid vehicles which, it says, seem to make more sense as a mass-market proposition. By 2020, the authors expect between 5 and 15% of vehicles sold will be plug-ins, with the figure rising to between 20 and 50% by 2030.
On the evidence in the report, the RAC Foundation and UKPIA (the UK Petroleum Industry Association) recommend that future regulation based on tailpipe emissions is increasingly unfit for purpose and must be changed to a well-to-wheel basis, and ultimately to reflect full life-cycle emissions.
They also recommend that Government should push strongly for a move from the current NEDC test cycle, towards the ‘Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure’ (WLTP) to capture tailpipe emissions and fuel consumption more accurately. This, they say, should be introduced in tandem with tightening the entire vehicle type approval test.
The report argues for a maximum 70g/km CO2 tailpipe target for 2025, with a preferred aim of 60g/km. Regulation must also begin to capture well-to-wheel (or, better, full life-cycle) emissions, while spreading the burden on vehicle manufacturers in an equitable manner.
The report recommends that Government takes a technology-neutral approach to encourage low carbon vehicles and that it should focus on the use of fiscal, regulatory and other policy levers to drive both the demand and supply of such vehicles, leaving the motor industry to lead the evolution, and the bringing to market, of the various technologies.
The LowCVP’s 2013 annual conference – to be held in London on July 11 – will be focusing on the issue of ‘moving beyond the tailpipe’, helping to provide guidance on an appropriate future regulatory framework (see link).
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