National Grid report: UK likely to miss decarbonisation targets
Wed 15 July 2015
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The latest edition of the National Grid's annual Future Energy Trends report shows the UK meeting its carbon reduction and renewables targets in only one of four scenarios envisaged. The report presents four energy scenarios to 2050, each providing starkly different visions of the UK’s future: Gone Green, Consumer Power, No Progression, and Slow Progression.
Only within the 'Gone Green' scenario would Britain have a chance to meet its statutory 2050 target of 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (from the 1990 baseline). According to the National Grid the scenarios are designed to help government, consumers and other stakeholders make informed decisions about energy policy and infrastructure investment.
The four scenarios in the report are:
Consumer Power: A world of relative wealth, fast-paced R&D and consumer spending. Innovation is focused on meeting the needs of consumers who are focused on improving their quality of life.
Gone Green: A world where green ambition is not restrained by financial limitations. New technologies are introduced and embraced, enabling all carbon and renewable targets to be met.
No Progression: A world focused on achieving security of supply at the lowest possible cost. Low economic growth and little innovation means traditional sources of gas and electricity dominate.
Slow Progression: A world where slower economic growth restricts market conditions. Available money is spent focusing on low-cost long-term solutions to achieve environmental targets, albeit later than the target dates.
Roisin Quinn, National Grid’s Head of Energy Strategy and Policy, said: “The energy industry is changing rapidly and at National Grid, we are right at the heart of that change. We haven’t got a crystal ball, but our scenarios offer a glimpse into the future, using our unique insight into the trends shaping the energy landscape.
The only scenario where the Grid considers the targets are achievable would involve installation of 27 million smart meters by 2035; 458 million compact fluorescent bulbs CFL light bulbs in use by 2035; a quadrupling of solar panels by 2021; one in six cars on the road could be electric and gas replacing diesel in the HGV sector both by 2035.
By contrast both the “Slow Progression” and “No Progression” scenarios reflect a slower growth in the economy (1.9%) annual average, with what is described as “inconsistent political signals,” “lack of focus on environmental policies” and a cost conscious society (no progression).
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