Met Office warns of four degrees rise in temperature if CO2 emissions rise continues unchecked
Mon 28 September 2009
View all news
Scientists working at the UK Met Office on behalf of the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) say that if world greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise without control, it is likely that global warming will exceed four degrees by the end of the century, or even earlier. Scientists say that a rise of four degrees could have catastrophic consequences including threatening the water supply to half the world's population and wiping out up to have of animal and plant species as well as causing widespread flooding of coastal and low lying areas.
Speaking in advance of a meeting at which officals from 190 countries will gather in Bangkok, Dr Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office Hadley Centre, presented the new findings at a special conference. held at Oxford University.
The report says that a 4C average would mask more severe local impacts: the Arctic and western and southern Africa could experience warming up to 10C, the Met Office report warns. The Met Office scientists used new versions of the computer models used to set the IPCC predictions, updated to include so-called carbon feedbacks or tipping points, which occur when warmer temperatures release more carbon, such as from soils.
Dr Richard Betts (reported by The Guardian) said: "It's important to stress it's not a doomsday scenario, we do have time to stop it happening if we cut greenhouse gas emissions soon." Soaring emissions must peak and start to fall sharply within the next decade to head off a 2C rise, he said. To avoid the 4C scenario, that peak must come by the 2030s".
Mark New, a climate expert at Oxford who has organised the conference, said: "If we get a weak agreement at Copenhagen then there is not just a slight chance of a 4C rise, there is a really big chance. It's only in the last five years that scientists have started to realise that 4C is becoming increasingly likely and something we need to look at seriously.
"Limiting global warming to 2C could only be achieved with new technology to suck greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. I think the policy makers know that. I think there is an implicit understanding that they are negotiating not about 2C but 3C or 5C."
Related Links
< Back to news list