ITF report: current international policies won't deliver target transport carbon reductions

The International Transport Forum's report, Transport Outlook 2017, says that the transport sector's CO2 emissions will rise up to 60 per cent between 2015 and 2050, with shifting global trade patterns making it difficult to decarbonise the transport industry.

 

The report says that current and foreseeable policies to mitigate carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions from global transport activity will not suffice to achieve the international community’s climate ambitions. It says that continued strong growth in demand for mobility means that even in the most optimistic scenario, transport CO2 emissions in 2050 will still be at 2015 levels of around 7.5 giga-tonnes.

 

This scenario already assumes that new technologies and changed behaviour lead to significantly less CO2 being emitted in relation to the total distance travelled. In the ITF Transport Outlook’s less optimistic baseline scenario, a doubling of global transport demand will lead to an increase of transport CO2 emissions of 60 per cent between 2015 and 2050.

 

The report is published in the same month as that of a collaboration between Carbon Tracker and the Grantham Institute which paints a much more optimistic picture about the future prospects for decarbonising transport. (See separate story link.)

 

Carbon Tracker's report focuses on the 'disruptive power of low carbon technologies' highlighting rapid cost reductions of electric vehicle batteries which it says will hasten global uptake. Allied with dramatic and ongoing cost reductions in solar PV technology the report predicts that electric vehicles will account for more than two-thirds of road transport by 2050, displacing approximately 25 million barrels of oil per day.