IPCC analysis says catastrophic climate change can be averted with little impact on economic growth
Mon 14 April 2014
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A landmark analysis by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that a global introduction of clean energy technology to limit the risks of climate change can be achieved at a cost of only a tiny fraction off economic growth.
The report, produced by 1,250 international experts and approved by 194 governments, dismisses fears that slashing carbon emissions would wreck the world economy. It is the final report in a trilogy that has already shown that climate change is “unequivocally” caused by humans and that, if unchecked, poses a grave threat to people and could lead to wars and mass migration.
The report says that diverting hundred of billions of dollars from fossil fuels into renewable energy and cutting energy waste would cost just 0.06% off expected annual economic growth rates of 1.3%-3%.
"It doesn't cost the world to save the planet," said economist Professor Ottmar Edenhofer, who led the IPCC team.
The cheapest and least risky route to dealing with global warming is to abandon all dirty fossil fuels in coming decades, the report found. Gas - including that from the global fracking boom - could be important during the transition, Edenhofer said, but only if it replaced coal burning.
The report shows that global emissions of greenhouse gases have risen to unprecedented levels despite a growing number of policies to reduce climate change. Emissions grew more quickly between 2000 and 2010 than in each of the three previous decades. The report says that emissions from transport are projected to rise at the fastest rate of all major sources in the period to 2050.
According to the Working Group III contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, it would be possible, using a wide array of technological measures and changes in behaviour, to limit the increase in global mean temperature to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. However, only major institutional and technological change will give a better than even chance that global warming will not exceed this threshold.
The report, entitled Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, is the third of three Working Group reports, which, along with a Synthesis Report due in October 2014, constitute the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report on climate change.
Scenarios show that to have a likely chance of limiting the increase in global mean temperature to two degrees Celsius, means lowering global greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 70 percent compared with 2010 by mid-century, and to near-zero by the end of this century. Ambitiousmitigation may even require removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
In response, the EU Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard said: “The report is clear: the more you wait, the more it will cost [and] the more difficult it will become.”
The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, said: “This report is a wake-up call about global economic opportunity we can seize today as we lead on climate change.”
The UK’s Energy and Climate secretary, Ed Davey, said: “The [report shows] the tools we need to tackle climate change are available, but international efforts need to significantly increase.”
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