International Transport Forum forecasts five-fold growth in transport use between 2000 and 2050
Fri 03 June 2011
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The International Transport Forum forecasts that transport use in non-OECD countries will grow by about five times between 2000 and 2050 according to its latest report, 'Transport Outlook 2011'. Meanwhile, the Committee on Climate Change in its latest report to the Government says that UK emissions increased 3% in 2010 and that more must be done to accelerate progress.
The ITF's report says that due to forecast improvements in fuel economy, CO2 emissions from transport will rise less fast than overall mobility but are still likely to be be 2.5 to 3 times higher in 2050 than 2000. The report predicts passenger kilometres will grow by 30-40% in OECD countries and by a factor of 5-6.5 in non-OECD countries, while tonne kilometres will grow by 60-90% in OECD and by a factor of 4-5 in non-OECD.
The latest Committee on Climate Change report analysed the changes in the UK's carbon emissions and found that, when the effects of the recent cold winter and the recession were accounted for, the overall trend was flat.
The CCC Chief Executive, David Kennedy said: "We are below the level of the 2008-12 budget because of the very big emissions reduction in 2009 due to the recession, not because we had begun to do things fundamentally differently, and we should not be deceived by that."
Changes to car emissions were rated as "good" in theCCC report, with the average emissions of new vehicles down from 160g of CO2/km in 2008 to 144g in 2010. But counteracting this was a slight rise in speeding and the prospect of the speed limit being raised to 80mph, which the CCC said would result in 3.5m extra tonnes of CO2 being emitted each year.
Meanwhile, the latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) says that global CO2 emissions from energy use rose by 5% during 2010.
Energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2010 were the highest in history, according to the latest estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA). After a dip in 2009 caused by the global financial crisis, emissions are estimated to have climbed to a record 30.6 Gigatonnes (Gt), a 5% jump from the previous record year in 2008, when levels reached 29.3 Gt.
Dr Fatih Birol, Chief Economist at the IEA said: “This significant increase in CO2 emissions and the locking in of future emissions due to infrastructure investments represent a serious setback to our hopes of limiting the global rise in temperature to no more than 2ºC.”
For further information on the ITF, CCC and IEA reports, please follow the associated links.
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