ICCT analysis challenges IEA's projections for carbon savings from growing biofuels use
Sat 04 June 2011
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The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has challenged the International Energy Agency (IEA) over the Agency's argument in a recent report that 27% of transport energy needs worldwide could be met from biofuels by 2050, while saving 20 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions and without affecting food security.
The ICCT analysis says that by 2050, the IEA roadmap assumes 32 exajoules of biofuel production, split 50:50 between crop-based and waste-based fuels, and that the crops will require 70 million hectares (Mha) of land to grow.
The ICCT says that 70 Mha of land (a little more than the area of Germany and Poland combined) does not come carbon free and that while the IEA acknowledges this, the Agency decides that trying to work out and account for the land use emissions would be too uncertain and therefore has not done it.
The ICCT points to a recent European Joint Research Centre (JRC) report which looks at similar issues. The JRC report suggests that 40 tonnes of carbon release per hectare is a rough but reasonable estimate for the typical carbon cost of land conversion. At an average of 40 tonnes of carbon per hectare, a 70 Mha allotment of land would result in about 10 Gt of emissions – enough to cancel out half of the cumulative 20 Gt of emissions savings that the IEA hopes to achieve by 2050.
According to the ICCT, this would mean that using biofuels would not cause any reduction in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels until after 2050.
The ICCT challenges the IEA's conclusion on increased biofuels use, suggesting that it does not look worthwhile when weighed against the likely increased water stress and loss of biodiversity and other ecosystem services from turning 70 Mha of land over to agriculture.
In a separate report on a related subject, the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) says that the biggest cause of deforestation of tropical forests comes from growing demand for food products.
The report concludes that large international businesses producing items such as palm oil, beef and timber have become the most destructive drivers of deforestation—a shift from the past when local populations were thought to be responsible for much of the damage to rain forests.
For more information on any of these reports, please follow the associated links.
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