Higher emissions targets are cost effective - leaked EC policy document
Fri 18 February 2011
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A draft policy document which has been leaked and published by The Guardian says higher greenhouse gas emission reduction targets are cost effective and achievable in practice. The draft document sets out a low carbon road map to 2050 and discusses the effects of inceasing the speed of cuts over the next decade.
According to the Guardian, the plans which are contained in a confidential draft policy document circulating in the European Commission, could cost heavy industry an extra €12bn (£10bn) to €20bn within the next few years, and would have profound effects on a broad sweep of economic sectors, from construction and transport to farmers.
The analysis says that Europe's existing target of a 20% emissions cut by 2020 will be easily surpassed on current policies. Raising the current emissions-cutting goal to 25% would be "cost-effective", according to the draft, and by 2030 the EU should aim to cut emissions by 40%, rising to 60% by 2040.
The confidential 13-page document includes amongst its recommendations:
• The use of biofuels, which has been attacked by environmentalists, could be reduced if the EU steps up its efforts on electric cars.
• A 25% emissions cuts by 2020, 40% by 2030, 60% by 2040.
• Businesses covered by the EU's emissions trading scheme should have their surplus carbon permits set aside. The surplus arose because of the effects of the recession, but if companies are allowed to hang on to all the spare permits, they will scarcely need to cut emissions at all for the next five years.
• All new buildings should be designed as "intelligent low- or zero-energy buildings", with any extra costs from this repaid by fuel savings.
• At least €10bn should be invested annually in carbon capture and storage technology, which must be used "on a broad scale" after 2035.
• Farmers could halve the greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture by 2050, with improved practices. But the need to grow more food, and the reduction in emissions from energy generation will mean agriculture will account for a third of EU emissions by the middle of the century, putting farmers at the centre of any climate policy.
Achieving the low-carbon energy and transport systems needed, the paper says, would cost about €270bn a year over the next 40 years, according to the roadmap, equivalent to about 1.5% of GDP on top of the 19% of GDP that is invested in infrastructure and new technology annually.
Although this sounds like a lot, the Commission notes that the increase would "simply take us back to the investment levels before the economic crisis", and is still much lower than the rate of investment in key emerging economies such as China (48%), India (35%) and Korea (26%).
Green campaigners said the document demolished the arguments against more ambitious targets. "The case is now unanswerable," said Ruth Davis, chief policy adviser at Greenpeace.
The report echoes one of the main findings of the 2006 Stern Review which concluded that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change considerably outweigh the costs. (See associated link)
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