Fossil fuel demand to peak then fall after 2020 due to low carbon technologies says new report
Tue 07 February 2017
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A new report, the result of a collaboration between Carbon Tracker and the Grantham Institute, says that the demand for coal and oil will peak in 2020 as low carbon technology prices - including for EV batteries - continue to tumble.
The study predicts that solar PV will become “materially cheaper than alternative power options globally” between 2030 and 2040 and says that the technology could supply 29% of global power generation by 2050, entirely phasing out coal and leaving natural gas with a 1% market share.
The report predicts that electric vehicles will account for more than two-thirds of the road transport by mid-century – a growth trajectory that would see EVs displace approximately 25 million barrels of oil per day.
Carbon Tracker senior researcher Luke Sussams (quoted by Edie) said “Electric vehicles and solar power are game-changers that the fossil fuel industry consistently underestimates. Further innovation could make our scenarios look conservative in five years’ time, in which case the demand misread by companies will have been amplified even more.”
The report says that global warming could be limited to 2.4C by 2100 if EV and solar PV deployment reach the levels forecast under the projected scenario.
The cost of solar PV has fallen 85% over the last seven years, according to the study, which predicts it will become “materially cheaper than alternative power options globally” between 2030 and 2040. Researchers say that EV sales are currently growing 60% year-on-year and will likely become cheaper than conventional internal combustion engines (ICEs) by 2020.
However, a report by the International Transport Forum takes a contrary view (see
separate story) saying that it believes that current policies will fail to decarbonise transport by 2050.
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