Environmental security battle ahead as Arctic warms - US National Academy of Sciences
Thu 10 March 2011
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A report from the United States National Academy of Sciences has warned the US Navy that it should prepare for potential conflict in the wake of competing claims for resources as the Arctic warms due to climate change and as calls for climate-related humanitarian assistance increase.
According to the study, commissioned by the US Navy, naval forces should begin Arctic training and the Marine Corps should also re-establish a cold weather training programme immediately. U.S. surface ships access to the region is currently poor whilst China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and several European nations are already exploring for oil and natural gas resources with icebreaker ships.
"Even the most moderate current trends in climate, if continued, will present new national security challenges for the the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard," concludes the academy report, which in turn “will have the potential to strain military resources and existing national security missions.”
The NAS report says the Navy should expect anywhere from 1.3 to 6.5 feet of sea level rise through the end of the century, with the most likely rise being 2.6 feet. But these figures represent the global average sea level rise, the report notes, cautioning that erosion and subsidence of coastal areas could exacerbate the impact of rising waters in many areas. And even without inundation, a gradual rise in sea level is also likely to increase naval installations' vulnerability to storm surge and increase the height of waves.
Beyond the Arctic, the study also said that the expected rise in extreme weather events due to climate change will create more humanitarian assistance missions.
Amongst its recommendations the report suggests the US needs to build partnerships with countries, multilateral organizations, and NGOs in order to address climate change together, as well as ratify the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea which will allow "maximum operating flexibility in the Arctic" and greater credibility with other Arctic nations.
The navy has already adopted a goal of deriving only 50% of its energy from fossil fuels by 2020. Much of the other half will come from nuclear power, though the navy has also committed to buying stocks of camelina.
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