EC project finds transport must cut emissions 50-80% to meet overall 2050 target
Wed 17 March 2010
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If the EU is to meet its overall target of cutting total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 80% by 2050 then transport must reduce its emissions by 50-80% according to a report based on a project set up by the European Commission to look at GHG emission reduction scenarios. Even the most ambitious scenario developed so far would deliver a reduction of less than 60% by 2050.
According to a report in ENDS, this means transport is unlikely to deliver the required cuts. The analysis is based on various combinations of policy options and technological improvements including new vehicle emission limits, increased fuel taxes, support for electric and hydrogen technologies, EU motorway speed limits and land transport's inclusion in the EU's emissions trading scheme (ETS).
The project organisers say that deep emission cuts require technical, structural and demand-reduction measures and that would have to be put in place fairly rapidly to allow sufficient time to deliver emission reductions because most instruments have long lead times.
The project will be examining other scenarios in the coming months to find a combination that delivers greater reductions. The organisers hope to have a final version of their scenario-generating tool ready by the end of April, when they plan to publish more a detailed explanation of the assumptions they have used.
Partners in the EC project include AEA, CE Delft, Isis, TNO and Milieu.
A more optimistic scenario is offered in a report released by the German federal environment agency which shows how transport emissions in the country could drop by 43% by 2020 through a mixture of measures such as traffic reduction, charges and energy efficiency legislation.
The agency believes that only 80% of these measures would need to be implemented in order to achieve such a reduction in emissions. Implementing half of the measures would lead to a 27% reduction compared with a business-as-usual scenario, it estimates.
Measures with the highest reduction potential include traffic reduction, increased use of biofuels and higher energy taxes on transport fuels.
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