China: EVs expected to outsell ICE vehicles in 2025, ten years ahead of schedule
Sat 15 February 2025
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Sales of electric vehicles are booming in China with EV sales expected to outstrip internal combustion engine vehicles in 2025 for the first time.
Up to 12 million EVs are expected to be sold in China in 2025, with sales of ICE vehicles likely to drop as much as 10%, according to investment analysts.
In 2020, the Chinese government set a target for EVs to account for 50% of new car sales by 2035. Current projections are that this milestone will be achieved a full decade early.
The Financial Times has published data suggesting that Chinese EV sales could exceed 18 million by 2034, with sales of ICE models dropping to as low as 2.93 million by that time.
Chinese buyers are showing increasing preference for vehicles manufactured locally, with large numbers of lower priced vehicles coming on to the market. Leading Chinese manufacturers include BYD, Geely, Great Wall Motors, NIO, Dongfeng Motor Corporation, GAC Motor, SAIC Motor, XPeng, and JAC. Several of these car makers are making considerable progress in European and other markets.
Chinese brands are now reported to sell three-quarters (76%) of the global EV and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) market.
A new pan-European study by data analytics and advisory firm Escalent has found that lower prices of Chinese-made electric vehicles could turn European consumers into active buyers; that there's growing awareness of Chinese brands and that attitudes towards these brands are changing.
Mark Carpenter, managing director of Escalent UK, said: “Despite talk of tariffs of 17% to 35% in some markets, Chinese brands are involved in high-profile sponsorship and ad campaigns, and are growing a bigger presence on dealership forecourts.”
Escalent suggest that falling brand loyalty could change the EV car landscape in Europe very quickly.
Meanwhile, Carbon Brief reports that clean energy technologies made up more than 10% of China’s economy in 2024 for the first time ever, with sales and investments worth 13.6tn yuan ($1.9tn) – equivalent to just over 10% of China's total GDP..
The new sector-by-sector analysis, based on official figures, industry data and analyst reports, shows the growing role of clean technology in China’s economy – particularly the so-called “new three” industries, namely, solar, electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries. The "new three" generated three-quarters of the value added and, overall, attracted more than half of all investment in the sectors.
The analysis found that clean energy investment reached 6.8tn yuan ($940bn), with annual growth of 7%.
Carbon Brief says that China’s investment in clean energy was close to the global total invested in fossil fuels in 2024 and was of a similar scale to the overall size of Saudi Arabia’s economy.
China would have missed its 5% target for GDP growth without the contribution from clean technologies - without that, China's GDP growth would have been only 3.6% instead of the 5.0% reported.
Image: Courtesy BYD
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